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Literature review of forecasting and definitions business essay

The literature shows that scenario planning is used across many types of organisations and industries now, and that different approaches to the scenario building process have developed. Furthermore, the functions of scenarios have developed over time. Scenarios are now widely seen as a tool for strategic planning, instead of solely giving a future outlook.

After a short definition of the term scenario as it is used here, I will show that the scenario approach is about to depart from a prevailing paradigm, before examining in more detail the scenario characteristics and methods.

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  • In addition I searched the Internet for articles on the subject and for institutions and networks involved in scenario studies;
  • Entrepreneurship and entrepreneur a review of design and payment and literature review models by promoting economic forecasting;
  • Schwartz explains it this way:

Finally, I will explore the notion of scenario planning as a useful strategic planning tool and its application in practise.

In the conclusion I will summarise the main aspects of the scenario literature and indicate potential fields of interest for future research. In my research I included a wide array of journals in an attempt to reflect a spectrum of different opinions. Those journals included both electronic journals and hard copies. Within these journals I looked for articles on the methodologies, characteristics, and typologies of scenarios as well as case studies.

In addition I searched the Internet for articles on the subject and for institutions and networks involved in scenario studies. I also followed up on references in some of those articles found.

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My research furthermore included two books. In order to achieve a deeper understanding of the topic I also read articles dealing with related topics. This included articles about organisational learning, methodological approaches in economy vs.

Originally it comes from the world of theatre, where it describes the outline of a play. It is also used for movies, in military language, and the field of statistics. The latter definition describes how the term scenario is used in the sense discussed here.

He gave the following definition: A series of definitions, often merely variations of one and the same, is available in the literature. Those authors consider the latter as preferred with regards to the decision making in strategic management.

A Review of Scenario Planning Literature

Many others Wack, 1985b, Schoemaker 1991, van der Heijden, 1996 see the description of pathways to different possible futures as an essential part of the scenario itself. However, all authors emphasise that scenarios need to be plausible and internally consistent to be accepted and useful. They usually take a limited view on the world by determining how selected variables will develop, e.

Literature review of forecasting and definitions business essay

Proponents Schoemaker 1991, Schwartz, 1998, van der Heijden, 2004, Hamilton, 1981 of the scenario approach argue that forecasting techniques that extrapolate a certain trend or past history into the future may well work in rather stable times. A changed environment requires adjusted methods to plan for the future. Schwartz explains it this way: But important questions about the future are usually too complex or imprecise for the conventional languages of business and science. Instead we use the language of stories and myths.

  • Job materials and application essays learn how to write a review of literature between the central topic of the literature review and a larger area of;
  • Proponents Schoemaker 1991, Schwartz, 1998, van der Heijden, 2004, Hamilton, 1981 of the scenario approach argue that forecasting techniques that extrapolate a certain trend or past history into the future may well work in rather stable times;
  • My organization uses the delphi technique of forecasting essay writing service external factors that affect the business includes the weather.

Stories have a psychological impact that graphs and equations lack. Stories are about meaning; they help explain why things could happen in a certain way.

They give order and meaning to events — a crucial aspect of understanding future possibilities.