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The arab spring and its negative effects on egypt

His areas of interest include NGO legitimacy, civil society peacebuilding, conflict prevention, war-to-peace transitions, and Sri Lankan politics. The Arab Spring has been widely seen as a watershed event which has irrevocably changed the region and the global political landscape and led to a seismic shift in the social contract governing the relationship between Arab ruling elites and their populations. The Spring has demonstrated a strong regional dynamic: There is considerable uncertainty about the extent to which the Arab Spring is likely to spread or be sustained.

While many commentators argue that the fall of incumbent regimes in Bahrain, Libya, Syria and Yemen is inevitable in the long term, most agree that oil-rich Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia will remain resistant to major political change, using a combination of repression with handouts to maintain their grip on power.

In a recent reportthe Economist Intelligence Unit argues that the fate of the uprisings is still in the balance and that there are three main possible scenarios, with the outcome of limited democratic reform being the most likely. Islamist movements formed under authoritarian regimes will face internal challenges, and tensions may emerge from younger activists, some of whom may support greater pluralism and openness.

There is some debate surrounding the extent to which Islamist parties will seek to compromise their agendas to meet rising demands for democratisation. While some argue that the MB can be reconciled with secular democracy, others question its commitment to democracy. Although social media savvy youth played an important role in driving the protests in most countries, their role is likely to diminish as political transitions play out in the region.

Youth movements generally lack the organisation, leadership and policy platforms to continue to press their agenda.

Good And Bad Of Arab Spring

While the Arab Spring has had a profound impact on the political settlement in many countries of the MENA region, some commentators have argued that it has failed to bring about any major change in regional power structures.

Several commentators argue that developments in Egypt will have a significant impact on the wider region, either providing a blueprint for reform in other regions if the transition is successful, or encouraging anti-democratic opposition if the transition stalls. While there are signs that the military are consolidating their position in Egypt, the decision of the government to detain the former President demonstrates the continued power of protest.

Effects of the Arab Spring

The protests have ratcheted up regional competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the latter becoming increasingly fearful of the threat posed by Shia rebellions in Bahrain and Yemen.

Turkish officials are becoming more strident in support of transition in Syria, where they fear a sectarian war. Western intervention in Libya may have a significant impact on the wider region. If not, the damage is likely to grow. Saudi Arabia has seen its position in the Arab world weaken as a result of the Arab Spring, losing its most important regional ally — Hosni Mubarak.

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It backed President Saleh in Yemen until his position became untenable and a threat to stability. It is now likely to try to limit the emergence of a united and more independent Yemen by provoking internal divisions within Yemeni elites.

Protests encouraged a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas, the two main political parties in the Palestinian Territories, by exposing both parties to growing popular pressure for change.

The outcomes of the Arab Spring

The agreement makes an immediate resumption of the peace process unlikely since Israel has stated unequivocally that it will not negotiate with a government that includes Hamas.

The agreement does, however, put the Palestinians in a stronger position to push for a United Nations vote on statehood in September, if they can agree on who should lead a new government. The protests have raised a number of new security challenges for the region.

Although sectarian motivations have been largely absent from most of the recent uprisings, the threat of sectarian conflict looms large over a number of countries, particularly those such as Bahrain and Syria which are ruled by an ethnic minority group. Revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia have been driven by young people motivated by freedom and non-violent action, rather than defending Muslim lands from Western aggression. Nevertheless, if the protests stall, Al-Qaeda could yet take advantage of the ensuing frustration.

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Erik Nehring In the short term, the economic consequences of the Arab Spring favour the oil-producing countries that have experienced the least instability.

Egypt and Tunisia, by contrast, have seen sharp reductions in production, trade and services that have created fragile fiscal positions. Over the long term, some commentators predict that democratisation will generate significant economic benefits.

Having said this, the task of economic reform in the region is likely to be extremely difficult.

  • This compliance has been lacking and is still lacking among the political forces within the Arab countries; Urgent need that the political forces which require achievement of democracy in the Arab countries, must be loyal to democracy not only in words but also in deeds; Necessity of political discourse between all political forces is characterized by moderate approach and an open mind to all political forces, in all grades and categories of them, this on one hand;
  • While, on the other hand, these regimes are trying to trick their people that their continuance in power represents the only factor for the stability and security of these peoples Group of authors, 2012, p;
  • More than that, some analysts believe that these documents had an active role in what has happened in the Arab world, because these documents has revealed many hidden things about the rulers and their escorts, as and the size of the corruption that exists in these countries;
  • On July 26, 2008, at St;
  • Thus, the presence of dominance of the executive power, directly affects the performance of the other two powers and their role in supervisory level; Fourthly, one of the obstacles of democratic transformation in Egypt is also the quality of Egyptian political elite.

Most countries in the region are also blighted by kleptocratic monopolies, heavy regulation and massive state subsidies. Vested interests are also likely to resist change and may require further protest and violence to be changed.

Acta Universitatis Danubius. Relationes Internationales, Vol 9, No 1 (2016)

Tackling corruption will be one of the central challenges facing the region during the next phase of the transition. New governments in Egypt and Tunisia will need to pursue a delicate balance between tackling vested interests and corruption on the one hand, and the need to avoid capital flight and the to ensure some degree of political stability on the other. The issue of bread and fuel subsidies is particularly sensitive. Although these subsidies can yield immediate political benefits to the governments that distribute them, they have negative long-term impacts on public finances and may be unfairly distributed because of corruption.

One of the key challenges facing policymakers in the region will be the question of how to design new policies that reach targeted groups more efficiently.